# Champions League: Opta snubs PSG again

> According to Opta’s simulations, Paris Saint-Germain rank only fifth among Champions League title favorites with an 8.33% chance. This comes as the Paris club tops its group and has just sealed an important win in Manchester.

- Source : https://www.psg-news.com/en/article/champions-league-opta-snubs-psg-again
- Published on : 2026-10-15T13:50:58+00:00
- Modified : 2026-10-16T21:20:22+00:00
- Lang : en
- Publisher : PSG News (https://www.psg-news.com/)
- Tags : psg, opta, champions league, predictions
- Other languages : fr: https://www.psg-news.com/article/ldc-opta-snobe-a-nouveau-le-psg
- Photo : Zakarie Faibis, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 — https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Parc_des_Princes_Paris_Saint_Germain_z_11.jpg

## Key takeaways

- Opta simulations give Paris Saint-Germain an 8.33% chance to win the Champions League, up from 7.1% before the knockout phase.
- They are placed fifth among title favorites, with Arsenal on 21.34% and Manchester City on 13.65% while Bayern Munich sit just behind Arsenal.
- PSG's group-stage record stands at two wins, six points and a +7 goal difference (10 scored, 3 conceded), including a 6-1 win over Slovan Bratislava and a 4-2 victory at Manchester City.
- Barcelona's probability rises to 12.59% after the opening matchdays, and their visit to the Parc des Princes next week could influence future projections.

Back-to-back [Champions League](/en/tag/champions%20league) holders, Paris Saint-Germain appear far from the top spots in the latest wave of simulations published by [Opta](/en/tag/opta). The supercomputer gives them only a 8.33% chance of winning the competition, a slight uptick from the 7.1% estimated before the start of the knockout phase.

## Opta probabilities
On the pitch, [PSG](/en/tag/psg)’s group-stage record is solid: two wins, six points and a +7 goal difference (10 scored, 3 conceded). The victories include a big win over Slovan Bratislava (6-1) and a successful trip to Manchester City (2-4), a performance that caught international attention.

## Group-stage record
Despite these results, Opta place Arsenal top of the probabilities with a 21.34% chance of being crowned. Bayern Munich sit just behind Arsenal in the simulations; the German club have just played out a spectacular draw (3-3) against FC Viking. Manchester City complete the podium of favorites with a 13.65% probability.

## Competitors probabilities
FC Barcelona are also trending upward in the models: the Catalan club see their probability rise from 8.2% before the competition to 12.59% after the opening matchdays. Barcelona will travel to the Parc des Princes next week, a date that could influence the projections for the remainder of the group stage.

## Barcelona trend
These figures confirm a cautious view from the algorithms on PSG’s chances, despite a broadly convincing start. The upcoming group games, and in particular the head-to-head with Barcelona, will be decisive in showing whether PSG’s performances will significantly shift these probabilities.

## Conclusion

## Your questions, our answers

**What percent chance does Opta give PSG to win the competition?**

The supercomputer gives them only a 8.33% chance of winning the competition, a slight uptick from the 7.1% estimated before the start of the knockout phase.

**Which team tops the probabilities according to Opta?**

Arsenal top the probabilities with a 21.34% chance of being crowned.

**Which team will travel to the Parc des Princes next week?**

FC Barcelona will travel to the Parc des Princes next week, a date that could influence the projections.


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