Champions League: Opta snubs PSG again
According to Opta’s simulations, Paris Saint-Germain rank only fifth among Champions League title favorites with an 8.33% chance. This comes as the Paris club tops its group and has just sealed an important win in Manchester.
Key takeaways
- Opta simulations give Paris Saint-Germain an 8.33% chance to win the Champions League, up from 7.1% before the knockout phase.
- They are placed fifth among title favorites, with Arsenal on 21.34% and Manchester City on 13.65% while Bayern Munich sit just behind Arsenal.
- PSG's group-stage record stands at two wins, six points and a +7 goal difference (10 scored, 3 conceded), including a 6-1 win over Slovan Bratislava and a 4-2 victory at Manchester City.
- Barcelona's probability rises to 12.59% after the opening matchdays, and their visit to the Parc des Princes next week could influence future projections.
Match sheet
Manchester City 2 – 4 Paris Saint-Germain
· Ligue des champions · League Phase · Etihad Stadium
- 13' Désiré Doué (Paris Saint-Germain) — goal
- 15' Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain) — goal
- 32' Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain) — goal
- 53' Erling Haaland (Manchester City) — goal
- 61' Antoine Semenyo (Manchester City) — yellow card
- 62' Maghnes Akliouche (Paris Saint-Germain) — goal
- 69' Warren Zaïre-Emery (Paris Saint-Germain) — yellow card
- 75' Erling Haaland (Manchester City) — goal
Standings Ligue des champions : 1er, 9 pts (3 j.)
Back-to-back Champions League holders, Paris Saint-Germain appear far from the top spots in the latest wave of simulations published by Opta. The supercomputer gives them only a 8.33% chance of winning the competition, a slight uptick from the 7.1% estimated before the start of the knockout phase.
Opta probabilities
On the pitch, PSG’s group-stage record is solid: two wins, six points and a +7 goal difference (10 scored, 3 conceded). The victories include a big win over Slovan Bratislava (6-1) and a successful trip to Manchester City (2-4), a performance that caught international attention.
Group-stage record
Despite these results, Opta place Arsenal top of the probabilities with a 21.34% chance of being crowned. Bayern Munich sit just behind Arsenal in the simulations; the German club have just played out a spectacular draw (3-3) against FC Viking. Manchester City complete the podium of favorites with a 13.65% probability.
Competitors probabilities
FC Barcelona are also trending upward in the models: the Catalan club see their probability rise from 8.2% before the competition to 12.59% after the opening matchdays. Barcelona will travel to the Parc des Princes next week, a date that could influence the projections for the remainder of the group stage.
Barcelona trend
These figures confirm a cautious view from the algorithms on PSG’s chances, despite a broadly convincing start. The upcoming group games, and in particular the head-to-head with Barcelona, will be decisive in showing whether PSG’s performances will significantly shift these probabilities.
Conclusion
Your questions, our answers
What percent chance does Opta give PSG to win the competition?
The supercomputer gives them only a 8.33% chance of winning the competition, a slight uptick from the 7.1% estimated before the start of the knockout phase.
Which team tops the probabilities according to Opta?
Arsenal top the probabilities with a 21.34% chance of being crowned.
Which team will travel to the Parc des Princes next week?
FC Barcelona will travel to the Parc des Princes next week, a date that could influence the projections.